Operation Sindoor: India-Turkey Trade Faces Fallout After Pakistan Support

The recent escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan has reignited a broader geopolitical debate, with Turkey’s stance emerging as a significant point of contention. As Turkey continues to support Pakistan in its military conflicts, particularly during Operation Sindoor, the diplomatic and economic repercussions are being felt beyond borders. One of the most immediate casualties of this deteriorating relationship could be the trade ties between India and Turkey, which were already under strain even before the latest tensions flared. Trade between India and Turkey has witnessed a marked decline in the financial year 2025, signaling the early impacts of the strained political relationship. India’s exports to Turkey dropped by nearly 15 percent, standing at $5.21 billion from April to February of FY25. On the other hand, Turkey’s exports to India saw an even sharper fall of 17.25 percent, totaling $2.84 billion.

This decline in trade figures may be indicative of an underlying rift between the two nations, fueled not only by political differences but also by changing economic landscapes. India’s trade surplus with Turkey stood at $2.37 billion, but this may be short-lived as ongoing tensions continue to worsen. Although Turkey accounts for just 1.5 percent of India's total exports, the impact of a potential trade freeze could reverberate across multiple sectors. The trade relationship between India and Turkey spans a variety of sectors, and the consequences of strained ties will be felt across several industries.

India’s engineering goods form the backbone of its exports to Turkey, accounting for over 50 percent of total exports. These goods include machinery, mechanical and electrical components, and other industrial products essential for Turkey’s manufacturing sector.

A drop in trade of these goods could significantly affect India’s engineering industry, especially considering Turkey’s demand for advanced technology in sectors like construction, automotive, and electronics.

India imports around 160,000 tonnes of apples from Turkey annually, the highest-ever quantity imported from Turkey in recent years. Turkish apples have been an essential component of India’s fruit imports, with Turkey being one of the top suppliers.

Indian apple growers are now advocating for a ban on Turkish apple imports, following Ankara’s stance of supporting Pakistan during the recent border conflict. If India acts on these demands, it would significantly impact the Turkish apple market.

Turkey is also a significant supplier of marble, gold, vegetables, cement, and mineral oils to India.

The potential disruption of trade in these items, particularly marble and cement, could affect the construction industry in India. Meanwhile, gold imports from Turkey are critical for India’s jewelry market, one of the largest globally.

Organic and inorganic chemicals, along with drugs and pharmaceuticals, are also crucial exports from India to Turkey. A disruption in these supplies could impact Turkey’s pharmaceutical sector, which is increasingly dependent on Indian generics. Similarly, Indian chemical companies could lose a valuable market for their products in Turkey. The India-Turkey relationship has never been entirely devoid of tension. Although the two countries have shared a bilateral trade agreement since 1973 and established the Joint Commission on Economic and Technical Cooperation (JCETC) in 1983, the relationship has been uneven at times. The JCETC has held meetings alternately in both nations, with the most recent session being held in New Delhi in January 2014. Despite these institutional ties, Turkey has often taken stances that have not sat well with India, particularly concerning Kashmir.

Turkey has consistently supported Pakistan’s claims over Kashmir and has backed Islamabad in various international forums. Turkey’s direct support for Pakistan during times of conflict has exacerbated tensions, especially when Turkey supplied weapons, including drones, to Pakistan during recent military actions. This took a troubling turn during India's Operation Sindoor in May 2025, when Turkish drones were used by Pakistan to intrude into Indian airspace and attempt strikes at both military and civilian targets. While trade and investment have long been the foundation of India-Turkey relations, these ties now face serious jeopardy.

Total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Turkey to India stood at $227.5 million for the April 2000 to December 2023 period, while India invested around $200 million in Turkey between August 2000 and March 2024.

The investment climate may be further strained as tensions rise, leading to reduced bilateral cooperation in future infrastructure, technology, and financial projects.

The growing public sentiment in India against Turkey, especially on social media with the rise of #BoycottTurkey, is likely to lead to long-term consequences on trade. Indian consumers and industries could reconsider Turkish goods, especially in the retail and luxury markets.

Moreover, tourism, another significant sector, has already felt the brunt of the diplomatic rift. The growing calls for a tourism boycott of Turkey could impact Turkish hospitality, travel, and leisure industries. India’s role as a significant source of international tourists makes this a considerable concern for Turkey.

India’s diplomatic response could involve retaliatory measures, including potential trade sanctions, import restrictions, and diverting investments to other regional or global partners. This would not only hurt Turkey’s exports but could also ripple through Turkey’s broader economic ecosystem, particularly its reliance on markets in the Middle East and South Asia. It is ironic that despite the growing political tension, India has shown significant goodwill towards Turkey in the past. The most notable example came in February 2023, when Turkey was struck by devastating earthquakes in its southern regions. India launched “Operation Dost”, providing humanitarian assistance to the quake-hit areas and being one of the first countries to deploy rescue teams. However, Turkey’s continued support for Pakistan in the subsequent military conflicts — especially after Turkey supplied drones for incursions into Indian airspace — has overshadowed these acts of cooperation. As Turkey’s alliance with Pakistan deepens, the already fragile trade relationship between India and Turkey is likely to experience more turbulence. With sectors like agriculture (apples), engineering goods, and pharmaceuticals at risk, India’s next steps could have a significant economic impact on Turkey, especially as calls for a full boycott gain traction.

The question now arises: Can India afford to continue its trade relations with a country that openly supports its adversary, or is it time to act more decisively? The economic consequences of such a move, while significant, may prove to be a necessary stance in the face of an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

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