Will Your Life Change If Israel and Iran Go to War? If You’re Indian, Yes

The Israel-Iran conflict has entered a dangerous phase. With Israel’s massive airstrike campaign, named Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities — and Iran vowing retaliation — the risk of a nuclear escalation is higher than it has been in years. While the focus remains on West Asia, the effects of such a war would not be confined to its borders.

For India, the consequences would not just be diplomatic or economic — they would be deeply personal, directly affecting the lives of millions of Indians living and working in the Gulf, as well as the financial and daily lives of families across the country.

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, over 8 million Indian citizens reside in Gulf countries such as UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain.

• Many are employed as skilled and unskilled workers in construction, oil and gas, transport, retail, and domestic services.
• In the event of a full-blown war or nuclear threat, their safety, employment, and immigration status may be jeopardized.
• During past conflicts (e.g. Gulf War, 1990), India had to evacuate over 170,000 Indians in a massive operation.
• Any escalation today would require even more complex logistics due to higher populations and stricter airspace controls in wartime.

Families of Gulf-based workers in India — particularly in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Telangana — depend on monthly remittances for education, housing, food, and medical needs. A sudden halt in income due to evacuation or job loss would disrupt entire household economies.

India received $125 billion in remittances in 2023, making it the world’s top recipient. A large share of this comes from Indian workers in Gulf countries.

• If the conflict forces these workers to return or lose jobs, India could see a sharp drop in foreign income, especially in semi-urban and rural areas.
• Remittances are often used for school fees, home construction, medical treatments, and agriculture investments.
• A disruption could lead to loan defaults, cancelled education plans, and postponed healthcare for thousands of families.

Indian families who frequently travel between India and the Gulf — especially during summer holidays, Eid, or Diwali — could face sudden flight cancellations.

• In the event of an airspace closure, thousands of Indians could be stranded abroad or in transit.
• Students, elderly relatives visiting children abroad, or patients traveling for medical treatment would be most affected.
• Visa timelines, job joining dates, or school admissions may be delayed, causing personal and professional setbacks.

India imports over 80% of its crude oil, and a large part comes from the Middle East.

• Any instability in the Gulf would likely raise international crude oil prices.
• That would directly raise the cost of petrol, diesel, and LPG cylinders in Indian cities and villages.
• Higher fuel costs lead to increased prices of daily essentials — vegetables, grains, packaged foods — due to costlier transport.
• The urban middle class and rural households alike would feel the impact in their monthly budgets.

Historically, global conflicts cause inflation due to supply chain shocks.

• Food grains, cooking oil, imported electronics, construction materials, and fertilizers could become more expensive.
• Small businesses, delivery-based services, gig workers, and salaried households will see a rise in expenses without matching income growth.
• Monthly EMIs for home loans, vehicles, and education may become more difficult to manage.

India’s stock markets are highly sensitive to global geopolitical tensions.

• During major conflicts, the Sensex and Nifty have shown immediate volatility.
• Individuals investing through mutual funds, SIPs, or direct equity may see a dip in portfolio value.
• Senior citizens relying on equity-linked retirement funds could experience short-term financial stress.

Indian tech companies and freelance professionals often serve Gulf clients in sectors like logistics, e-commerce, and telecom.

• A prolonged war could lead to project cancellations, payment delays, and budget cuts from West Asian firms.
• Freelancers in India relying on UAE or Qatar-based clients might face sudden loss of work.
• IT service providers could face delayed contracts or paused offshore deployments, especially those with business hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Doha.

In case of nuclear escalation or environmental fallout:

• Indian embassies in the Gulf may need to coordinate large-scale evacuations, which could take time due to the volume of citizens.
• India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) may issue travel advisories or suspend non-essential flights.
• Families with relatives abroad will have to navigate long waits, uncertain timelines, and panic-driven communication delays.
• Health concerns — even over low-level radiation exposure, as seen in Chernobyl and Fukushima — may cause fear, even if medical risk to India remains low.

The Israel-Iran conflict may erupt in West Asia, but its human and economic consequences would reach deep into Indian homes. From rising expenses and job disruptions to family separations and financial anxiety, the impact would be felt across income levels and states.

For millions of Indians connected to the Gulf — whether through loved ones, livelihoods, or logistics — this is not just another foreign conflict. It could change everyday life in sudden, significant ways.